Brigade has changed the Commander’s intent. Revise FRAGO 04, and tell me what it breaks and how sure we are.
Agent
Approved by the Ops Officer for release
Sources
Brigade orders3 orders this watch
BG FRAGO 04 and matricesFRAGO, DSM, sync matrix
INTSUMs4 this watch
UAS imagery3 sorties
AgentI’ve drafted a four-claim revision of FRAGO 04, each claim with its source. One claim is uncertain and needs your decision.
FRAGO 05: change of intentRevised FRAGO
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Revised FRAGO · draftapproved
FRAGO 05: change of Brigade intent
4 claims · drafted by the agent at 16:12
DraftingAwaiting a humanApproved for release
The Brigade Commander has changed the intent: hold and fix the enemy forward of PL GREEN, with no counter-attack before 0700Z.Brigade FRAGO 07, para 2 · confidence 0.96
FRAGO 04 timings no longer fit: counter-attack H-hour moves from 0500Z to 0700Z, and Decision Point 2 moves from 0430Z to 0630Z.BG FRAGO 04, Decision support matrix · confidence 0.93
The engineer troop is released to Brigade at 0400Z, before the bridge demolition at GR 123456 is due to be ready at 0430Z.Brigade FRAGO 07, para 3d, Sync matrix · confidence 0.91
The enemy’s main effort may have shifted from the bridge at GR 123456 to the ford 2 km south.INTSUM 11, UAS sortie 3, partial coverage under jamming · confidence 0.48Uncertain · raised to the Ops OfficerAnalyst: kept, marked as unconfirmed
Release requires Ops Officer approvalApproveRequest changesApproved by the Ops Officer at 16:20 · released to the BG Commander for issue
A demonstration. The battlegroup Operations Officer asks CORTEX to revise FRAGO 04 after Brigade changes the Commander’s intent, and to say what the change breaks and how sure it is. CORTEX reads the Brigade orders, the battlegroup FRAGO and its matrices, the intelligence summaries and the UAS imagery, and drafts FRAGO 05 as four claims, each with its source. One claim, that the enemy main effort may have shifted to a ford, rests on partial UAS coverage under jamming, with low confidence, so it is flagged to the Ops Officer, who keeps it marked as unconfirmed and approves the FRAGO for release to the battlegroup Commander. Step by step:
The battlegroup Ops Officer asks: Brigade has changed the Commander’s intent. Revise FRAGO 04, and tell me what it breaks and how sure we are.
CORTEX reads the 3 Brigade orders issued this watch, BG FRAGO 04 with its decision support and sync matrices, the 4 INTSUMs this watch and imagery from 3 UAS sorties.
It drafts FRAGO 05 as four claims, each with its source: the Brigade Commander now intends to hold and fix the enemy forward of PL GREEN, with no counter-attack before 0700Z; counter-attack H-hour moves from 0500Z to 0700Z and Decision Point 2 from 0430Z to 0630Z; the engineer troop is released to Brigade at 0400Z, before the bridge demolition at GR 123456 is due to be ready at 0430Z; and the enemy’s main effort may have shifted from the bridge to the ford 2 km south.
The last claim rests on one INTSUM and UAS coverage of the ford lost for 11 minutes under jamming, so it is flagged as uncertain and raised to the Ops Officer.
The Ops Officer keeps it, marked as unconfirmed, and approves FRAGO 05 for release to the battlegroup Commander for issue. The FRAGO is marked approved.